By spotting potential food safety hazards as early as possible, you can take preventive measures to protect public health. Wageningen UR developed an early warning system for predicting mycotoxins in wheat.
Forewarned is forearmed. This definitely applies to matters of food safety. For the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality and the Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority, this was reason enough to commission Wageningen UR to develop a model for the early detection of food safety hazards. The method has been applied to the risk posed by the mycotoxin deoxynivalenol (DON) in wheat. DON is a toxin that is produced by fungi that occur in wheat, particularly during the cultivation phase. If you can predict the mycotoxin content of the harvest during cultivation, you will be able to use this information to decide whether or not anti-fungal measures should be taken.
Development of the model
Various factors affect the formation of DON during cultivation and the ultimate content present in the harvest. The weather, for example, plays a role. A wet and humid summer is favourable for the development of fungi. The wheat variety’s resistance also has an influence.
The method for predicting the presence of mycotoxins in wheat focuses on these factors. In order to develop the model, field data - weather conditions, region, variety, spraying schedules - were gathered over a period of several years and were stored in a database. New data is added to this database continually, for example, information on the weather and the resistance of wheat varieties in the Netherlands. The researchers have developed the model in such a way that based on the information in the database, they can make predictions for the future. Next, the model was incorporated into a Geographic Information System (GIS). This GIS application makes it possible to read predictions per region or postcode.
Stakeholders
There are several different stakeholders with an interest in a model that can predict mycotoxins in wheat. A crop farmer for example can use this information to decide whether or not to use pesticides. Grain processing companies can decide whether or not to purchase certain lots of wheat or whether or not to use these in certain production processes. On the basis of the predictions, monitoring organisations can use the predictions to perform specific inspections. The current model can continue to be developed for these various groups of end users, depending on their specific needs.
Mycotoxin formation
The expectation is that once the system has been used in practice and makes a contribution to improved control over mycotoxin formation in wheat, this will lead to a reduction in the health risks for people and animals.
Links: